A fundamental premise of new product development is that positive feedback—and strong initial sales—bode well for a product’s future success. Eric Anderson will discuss research that challenges this assumption. He will share findings from multiple studies of large datasets that show that some customers have preferences that lead them to systematically buy product “winners” or product “losers.” About one third of buyers are “harbingers of failure” and their early adoption of a new product is a strong signal that a product will fail (i.e., not be on the shelves less than three years after introduction). In contrast, about half of customers tend to buy product winners and early adoption by these “harbingers of success” is indeed good news for a product’s future. Eric will discuss the implications of these findings for marketing research, and how these insights may help marketers adjust their new product development processes.

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