Modeling Aggregate Consumer Journeys in a Cookie-Free Environment: A Two-Stage Framework for Marketing Mix Models – MSI

Working Paper

Modeling Aggregate Consumer Journeys in a Cookie-Free Environment: A Two-Stage Framework for Marketing Mix Models

Victor Churchill, H. Alice Li and Dongbin Xiu

Dec 30, 2025

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Develops and tests a two-stage approach using machine learning classification to predict directional changes followed by classical time-series techniques to extract meaningful patterns from noisy, aggregated data.

Topics

advertising marketing analytics Marketing ROI Omnichannels & Customer Journey

research recap

Mixing Models for Marketing Mix: Two Stages are Better Than One

Marketing mix models developed for the era of TV, radio and print advertising struggle in today’s complex media environment, compounded by the loss of individual-level data. A two-stage approach using machine learning classification to predict directional changes followed by classical time-series techniques can extract meaningful patterns from noisy, aggregated data.

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